(Author Cam Tu, translated by TranHoaiDuc.com)
The economy is facing many challenges, especially the economy of our country has a large openness, so it is influenced by many aspects by the international economy.
The Ministry of Finance shall propose ministries, branches and investors to urgently disburse public
The socio-economic situation report for the first quarter of 2020 of the General Statistics Office shows that the economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020 is estimated at 3.82% compared to the same period last year. This is a record low increase over the same period in the past 10 years (2010-2019) with the decline in growth of all three industrial and construction sectors; service; agriculture, forestry and fishery.
Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, General Director of the General Statistics Office, said: In the first quarter growth picture, only a number of service sectors maintained stable growth rates such as banking and finance, insurance; Information Communication; health and social assistance activities. These are bright areas that help the economy temporarily escape the risk of freezing.
“If the disease situation continues into the second quarter, Vietnam's processing industry will continue to decline, especially in the textile, footwear, electronics, steel and iron industries; production of motor vehicles ... ”, according to the General Statistics Office. In the structure of the economy in the first quarter of 2020, the manufacturing and processing industry, although not growing at a high rate, still plays a key role of economic growth.
According to Mr. Pham Dinh Thuy, Director of the Department of Industrial Statistics (General Statistics Office), in the first quarter, due to the effects of Covid-19 pandemic, the industrial and construction sector achieved low growth compared to the same period of the year. Previously, in which processing and manufacturing industry had the lowest increase in the period 2016-2020; electricity production and distribution grew steadily; Mining industry plunged mainly due to sharp decline in crude oil exploitation.
The General Statistics Office has developed three scenarios for economic growth in 2020. Specifically, in scenario 1, the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to last until the end of the second quarter, GDP growth for the whole year is forecast at over 5%. In Scenario 2, the Covid-19 epidemic is expected to last until the end of the third quarter, GDP growth for the whole year is forecast at over 5%, but lower than Scenario 1. Scenario 3 is developed with the goal of increasing GDP growth in 2020 will reach 6.8% as set by the National Assembly.
However, according to Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, achieving the 6.8% growth target is a big challenge, very difficult to achieve. Because Vietnam has a large open economy (over 200% annually), we depend a lot on the outside while major partner countries are closing trade and borders to prevent epidemics. Therefore, the disease will significantly affect Vietnam's economy.
Talking with reporters, Prof. Dr. Dang Dinh Dao, former director of the Institute for Economic Research and Development, said that the economic indicators in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year have decreased compared to the same period last year but in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, This is still a good result showing great and encouraging efforts in the current context. The important thing now is that from this result prepare the post-epidemic plan back to work to offset the damage caused by the epidemic.
“We need to be prepared so that when the Covid-19 pandemic passes away, we need to boost production and business as soon as possible, and we need to take advantage of this opportunity to bring Vietnam's advantageous products to market. world market after the pandemic such as essential goods, medical instruments ... ”, Prof. Dr., PhD. Dang Dinh Dao commented.
At the recent working session of the Prime Minister's Working Group in order to grasp the difficulties and obstacles that enterprises are facing, Mr. Truong Van Cam, Vice President, General Secretary of Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association said, The world is in great demand for antibacterial masks, while the capacity of domestic textile enterprises can produce immediately 100 million pieces per day and can increase even more.
Besides, due to the psychological impact of the disease situation, people tend to use online shopping, many retailers and production and business units have considered innovation as one of the solutions to stimulate consumer demand and contribute to maintaining a stable growth rate of the economy.
Need more timely, stronger support solutions
In order to solve difficulties for production and business, the Government has launched a support package worth 280,000 billion VND, including: 250,000 billion VND of credit support to freeze and extend loans to businesses affected by Covid-19 and 30,000 billion dong support extension, defer taxes for businesses.
Following the Prime Minister's direction, the State Bank of Vietnam also issued a decision to adjust interest rates, in which the refinancing interest rate decreased from 6% / year to 5% / year; Rediscount interest rate decreased from 4% / year to 3.5% / year. Recently, the Ministry of Finance proposed increasing the fiscal support package to delay and delay the tax payment to VND 80,200 billion.
According to Dr. Ngo Tri Long, economist, in the second quarter of 2020, the economic growth of the world and Vietnam will not be able to prosper or break through because the Covid-19 pandemic may still be complicated. Therefore, the No. 1 goal in the second quarter of 2020 is to control the disease and to continue stabilizing production and business.
“In order to support enterprises to stabilize production, the Government needs to synchronously implement many solutions, including monetary solutions with three objectives: restructuring the repayment term; interest rate waivers and reductions; keep the debt group. This shows support and sharing but also expresses the message of not subsidizing the weak ”, Assoc. Ngo Tri Long commented.
According to economic experts, the Prime Minister has directed comprehensive and timely solutions, but the implementation of the ministries to make the policies put into practice need more quickly. In the coming time, there should be solutions that can be implemented immediately, although it may affect the immediate budget revenue but will help promote business and production, spillover effects to other enterprises in the whole background. The economy, together with public investment projects, has created a big push for growth, production and business, thereby creating a long-term and more sustainable revenue for the budget.
Opmerkingen