Sunday, April 12, 2020, 10:28
Real estate experts make unexpected predictions about the real estate market
The Covid-19 pandemic caused real estate investors to change themselves to adapt.
Hunt the surrounding garden houses
Although newly appeared but garden houses in the outskirts of the city. HCM is becoming the destination of real estate investment cash flow.
Mr. Tran Khanh Quang, General Director of Viet An Hoa Real Estate Investment Joint Stock Company, said that starting from the end of last year, the trend of investors spending 5-10% of the budget on garden land acquisition, Farms in the neighboring provinces TP. HCM.
Along with the concern of Covid-19 epidemic, health and safety is being put on the top of green real estate investors. This investment trend is also stimulated by the increasing proportion of people owning cars, so it is simple to move from the city center to neighboring provinces.
"Because of these things, after the epidemic, the trend of garden and farm land will become the second home trend in Vietnam," Mr. Quang said.
In developed countries, the rich often buy a second home for weekend or holiday while in Vietnam most invest in tourist apartments and resort villas to exploit.
One-time garden houses are an investment in the fringe of Hanoi and are becoming an investment trend in the fringe city. HCM today
According to Mr. Quang, there are four areas that will be the promising land for gardening investors in the coming time: the West, the East, the coastal area and the plateau.
In the Western region, the provinces of Tien Giang and Long An are the most reasonable because of the city center. HCM from 200 -300km. The Eastern region will witness the emergence of Dong Nai while in the highlands area, Lam Dong will be a new destination. In the sea, garden houses will thrive in Binh Thuan, Ninh Thuan, even spread to Khanh Hoa.
“If you buy a garden house too far from the city center. HCM does not bring any benefit. Should choose a place with a travel distance of 2-3 hours, because with the development of current transport infrastructure, the distance of the property is determined to be how long it takes to travel, not how far The center is as far as before, ”said Mr. Quang.
Because of the increasing demand for investment in garden houses, the land lots with an area of 1000 - 3000m2 are within a radius of 100 - 200km from the city center. HCM is being traded a lot.
4 changes of real estate market after the epidemic
Mr. Quang said, the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to major changes in the real estate market.
Firstly, because the market has been stuck in the market for too long, it forced investors to have a new product strategy to bring customers back.
Second, the market after the Covid-19 epidemic will have an advantage thanks to the economic stimulus packages with both finance and policy. Typically, projects that are having legal problems will be removed by the government to return to the market.
Third, the great lesson of the 2008 economic crisis will force banks to continue lending to real estate businesses to some extent, rather than shrinking and restricting lending.
Fourthly, if our country controls the epidemic well, investors will flock to it and this is an opportunity for real estate.
Mr. Quang commented, since before Tet, professional investors expected that the market after Tet would be bad, so they restructured their assets to prepare contingency cash in the first six months.
For amateur investors, because they do not predict how the market after Tet will evolve, moreover they have used too much financial leverage to invest, so the outbreak happened that put them in a situation. confused and wishing to discharge goods.
Apartments with a value of over VND 3 billion, land plots of over VND 5 billion and townhouses of over VND 10 billion with owners borrowing over 70% of the bank value are most likely to be discharged.
Instead of falling prices, Mr. Quang said, after the Covid - 19 epidemic, real estate prices will increase by 3-5%. However, this increase is more technical than the increase market, such as investors increase prices and then offer discounts or promotions.
The market will have a product with a long installment period, the investor will give preferential support on bank interest from 12 to 24 months, even the investor can commit to buy the product again. This means that the investor does not want to sell the product in the immediate future but wants long-term stability.
In the apartment segment, Mr. Quang said that high-end apartments in locations near the center will thrive, while the low-cost apartment segment in the suburbs will meet the real needs of the people as well as economy in general.
2 scenarios for the HCMC apartment market HCM
Apartment price in the Ho Chi Minh City remained high among the Covid-19 pandemic
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Senior Director of CBRE Consulting, presented two scenarios for the HCMC apartment market. HCM corresponds to the ability to control Covid-19.
In the first scenario, if the epidemic is controlled in this quarter, the market is expected to receive about 28,000 new apartments and the average market price is expected to increase by 5% over the same period last year.
The mid-end and affordable segments are forecast to have modest growth of only 1% -3% YoY due to high competition from a large supply. High-end projects are expected to have a higher price increase, around 5% year-on-year while luxury projects licensed in District 1 and District 3 are expected to increase by 5% -7% YoY, due to scarcity of land bank in the central area.
CBRE forecasts that the transaction volume is expected to decrease by 3% compared to last year, mainly due to the decrease in transactions in high-end and luxury projects due to the impact of the epidemic.
In the second scenario, if the epidemic will last until September, the supply of new apartments will decrease to about 15,000 units, of which the decline will be much higher in the high-end and luxury segments.
If the epidemic is prolonged, the primary selling price could be reduced by 5% year-on-year as the sales volume is concentrated mainly in the mid-end segment, while the transaction volume may be reduced by half compared to last year, only to less than 14,000 units.
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