The Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and the European Union (EVFTA Agreement) is planned to be ratified by the National Assembly at its 9th session, National Assembly XIV. The Multilateral Trade Policy Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade said that from a multilateral perspective, with Vietnam taking on the role of ASEAN Chair in 2020, the EVFTA Agreement will increase the role and position of Vietnam in EU-ASEAN relations as well as a model for a free trade agreement between ASEAN and the EU in the future.
Following the Prime Minister's guidance, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has conducted a study to assess the impact of the EVFTA Agreement on Vietnam.
Research results show that two-way trade and investment from the EU into Vietnam after the EVFTA Agreement comes into effect are expected to grow at a decent rate, positively contributing to economic growth and public settlement jobs for workers. Particularly, state budget revenue may be improved and increased in the medium and long term.
In addition to the general impacts on different aspects of the economy (macroeconomic indicators), the Agreement has different impacts on industries due to the degree of openness, competitive advantage, and The force of each industry is different. In addition, the indirect effect through the pressure of institutional reform will also bring positive effects to the economy.
Research by the Ministry of Planning and Investment shows that, if the commitments on tariff and non-tariff reductions are implemented strictly, combined with some factors from the trade war, the possibility of the UK leaving the EU (Brexit), changes in policies of other countries ..., Vietnam's economic growth will be improved in both short-term, medium-term and long-term.
The EVFTA is expected to contribute to an average GDP growth of 2.18 to 3.25% (for the first 5-year period of implementation).
Calculation results indicate that the EVFTA Agreement is expected to contribute to an average GDP increase of 2.18 to 3.25% (for the first 5-year period of implementation), 4.57-5.30 % (for the next 5-year period) and 7.07-7.72% (for the next 5-year period).
Regarding exports, the EVFTA Agreement is expected to increase Vietnam's exports to the EU by 42.7% in 2025 and 44.37% in 2030 compared to the absence of the Agreement.
Regarding the total export turnover of Vietnam to the world, it is expected that our turnover will increase by an average of 5.21-8.17% (for the first 5-year implementation period), 11.12-15.27. % (for the next 5-year period) and 17.98-21.95% (for the next 5-year period).
Regarding imports, research by the Ministry of Planning and Investment shows that Vietnam's imports from the EU increased by about 33.06% in 2025 and 36.7% in 2030.
Regarding the total import turnover of Vietnam from the world, our turnover is expected to increase by an average of 4.36-7.27% (for the first 5-year implementation period), 10.63-15.4% (for the next 5-year period) and 16.41-21.66% (for the next 5-year period).
The group with the largest increase in imports from the EU is transportation vehicles and equipment, accounting for about 12% of the total increase in import value, the group of machinery and equipment (10%), textiles and phones and electronic components (6-7%), agriculture, forestry and fishery (5%). "EVFTA will contribute to the diversification of our market so as not to depend too much on any one market, thereby helping to ensure Vietnam's economic security", research of the Ministry of Planning and Investment only clear.
The agreement will create great attraction for investors
Regarding the impact on foreign direct investment, a study by the Ministry of Planning and Investment said that although the exact number of additional FDI has not been calculated because it depends on many factors, but expectations Regarding institutional innovation, improving the investment environment due to the implementation of the Agreement will create a great attraction for investors.
Accordingly, the Agreement's broad and in-depth commitments on investment will help Vietnam continue to renovate its economic structure, improve its institution and business environment, and create favorable conditions for EU investors doing business in Vietnam.
In addition, the commitment to facilitate investment along with the degree of liberalization of Vietnamese services for EU service providers has increased, especially business services and services
environment, postal services, banking, insurance, shipping. This will boost FDI inflows from the EU into Vietnam in the near future.
Regarding the quality of investment, with EVFTA, investment from partners originating from developed countries will increase as Vietnam increases its market opening of goods and services for EU businesses. This will create new impetus for FDI inflows to Vietnam.
The structure of the investment sector may also change as Vietnam attracts new investment partners and the fields of investment attraction are expanded. With EVFTA, the structure of FDI inflows into the large areas of investment in Vietnam and the EU can be as strong as clean energy and renewable energy.
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